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West Asia Conflict 2025: Impact on India’s Energy, Trade & Diplomacy | UPSC IR Analysis

 

🌍 West Asia Conflict & India’s Interests (Simplified)

📘 GS Paper 2 – International Relations | Bilateral Relations | Energy Security | Diplomacy

Source:-IE




🔥 What’s Happening in West Asia?

  1. Israel attacked Iran – this started a big tension in the region.

  2. Oil prices suddenly jumped by 7% after the attack.

  3. The biggest worry? Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz, a sea route where 20% of world oil passes.

  4. India is in a tricky situation. We have good relations with both Israel and Iran, and we import a lot of oil from this region.

  5. India’s Chabahar Port project in Iran is also at risk if things go worse.


🧨 Key Reasons Behind West Asia Conflict

1. 🇮🇱 Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

  • The fight between Israel and Palestine (especially Gaza) keeps going on.

  • UN is asking for peace, but attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah continue.

2. 🇮🇷 Iran vs. Israel Rivalry

  • Iran supports groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which Israel sees as enemies.

  • In 2024, Iran attacked an Israeli military base after a Hezbollah leader was killed.

3. 🔥 Sectarian Divide (Shia vs Sunni)

  • Countries like Saudi Arabia (Sunni) and Iran (Shia) support different groups in places like Syria and Yemen.

  • In Yemen, war has killed more than 2.5 lakh people!

4. 🌎 USA vs. China in West Asia

  • USA supports Israel and has military in Gulf.

  • China made peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 – big move!

  • Both want to control influence in the region.

5. 🛢️ Oil & Energy Control

  • Everyone wants control over oil. Iran makes 3.4 million barrels/day – that’s 3% of world oil!

  • Any war can push oil prices up, hurting poor countries.

6. 💸 Economic Crisis

  • Lebanon’s inflation is 200%. Youth jobless rate in Saudi and Iraq is 30-35%.

  • No jobs = more people joining extremist groups.

7. ☢️ Nuclear Tensions

  • Iran is now enriching uranium to 60%, close to making nuclear bombs.

  • Saudi may start making nukes too – can lead to dangerous arms race.


🇮🇳 How West Asia Conflict Affects India?

1. 🤝 Diplomatic Pressure

  • India has to stay neutral. We are friends with both Israel and Iran.

  • But war makes it hard. We want peace and also want to protect Chabahar Port.

2. ⛽ Energy Security Risk

  • India imports 80% of oil, mostly from West Asia.

  • Oil prices are rising fast due to war. Brent oil rose 9% recently.

3. 🚢 Costly Trade & Shipping

  • Red Sea is risky now. Ships are taking longer routes via Cape of Good Hope.

  • This adds 10-14 days and increases costs by 20% – affects goods like electronics and textiles.

4. 📉 Drop in Trade with Iran & Israel

  • Exports to Israel dropped 63.5% in early 2024.

  • Iran trade also fell. India is losing money from both sides.

5. 🧑‍🔧 Indian Workers in Danger

  • In the Gulf region, millions of Indians reside and work..

  • War means possible evacuation and loss of remittances (money sent home).

6. 📈 Inflation Rising

  • If oil price goes up by $10 per barrel, India’s current account deficit rises by $10 billion.

  • Fuel and food prices will rise – hurts poor the most.

7. 🐉 China’s Growing Role

  • China is making smart moves: peace deal, energy deals with Iran, BRI.

  • India must reconsider its strategy for maintaining its dominance in the area.


✅ What Can India Do?

1. 🕊️ Strong Diplomacy

  • India should talk to both Israel and Iran.

  • Build stronger ties with GCC countries like UAE and Saudi.

2. 🔐 Better Security Ties

  • Work with Israel, Egypt, Jordan for counterterrorism.

  • Share intelligence to stop attacks before they happen.

3. 🛢️ Diversify Energy

  • Buy oil from Africa, Central Asia, Latin America.

  • Build oil reserves to handle any sudden crisis.

4. ⚓ Strengthen Navy & Maritime Security

  • Indian Navy must protect sea routes like Strait of Hormuz.

  • Work with US, Japan, and Russia to keep seas safe.

5. 💼 Economic Diplomacy

  • Push trade deals and investments in the region.

  • Speed up Chabahar Port and INSTC (North-South Corridor).

6. 🤝 People-to-People Ties

  • Use Indian culture, tech, health and education to bond with West Asia.

  • Promote peace through soft power.

7. 🚉 Push Connectivity Projects

  • Complete INSTC for better trade routes via Iran to Central Asia.

  • More trade = more peace = less war risk.

8. 🚑 Humanitarian Role

  • Give medical help and food to war victims.

  • Build global image as a peaceful, helpful nation.


🧾 Conclusion:

West Asia is full of big risks – war, oil price hikes, and diplomacy headaches. But India can turn this challenge into an opportunity.
By staying neutral, smart, and helpful, India can become a stabilizing force in the region and protect its economy and people.

📌 FAQs: West Asia Conflict & India’s Interests


1️⃣ Why is the West Asia region always in news?

West Asia (also called the Middle East) is always in news because:

  • There are ongoing wars and religious tensions (like Israel-Palestine conflict).

  • It's rich in oil, which is important for the whole world.

  • Big powers like USA, China, and Russia are trying to control the region.


2️⃣ Why is the Iran-Israel conflict important for India?

Because:

  • India buys a lot of oil from West Asia.

  • Iran is our partner in Chabahar Port, which helps us trade with Central Asia.

  • Israel is our close defense partner.
    So if they fight, India is stuck between both sides.


3️⃣ What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter?

  • It’s a narrow sea route near Iran.

  • 20% of the world’s oil passes through this route.

  • If it’s blocked due to war, oil prices will go up and India will suffer.


4️⃣ How does the conflict affect India’s economy?

  • Oil prices go up → petrol/diesel becomes expensive → inflation rises.

  • Shipping costs increase → Indian exports get delayed and costly.

  • Trade with Iran and Israel drops → less money for India.

  • Indian workers in Gulf may lose jobs or need evacuation.


5️⃣ What is Chabahar Port, and why is it important?

  • It's a port in Iran, developed by India.

  • It helps India access Afghanistan and Central Asia without going through Pakistan.

  • If war happens in Iran, this project could stop or delay.


6️⃣ What is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)?

  • It’s a big trade route project that connects India to Europe via Iran, Central Asia, and Russia.

  • India wants this as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

  • West Asia conflict can slow this project.


7️⃣ Why is China getting more powerful in West Asia?

  • China made peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023.

  • It’s doing oil deals and investing heavily in the region.

  • China is becoming more trusted than the USA in many parts of West Asia.


8️⃣ What is India’s position on the Israel-Palestine issue?

  • India supports Palestine’s rights but also has strong friendship with Israel.

  • India calls for peace, restraint, and dialogue.

  • It follows a balanced and non-aligned policy.


9️⃣ How can India protect itself during such conflicts?

India should:

  • Buy oil from other countries (not only West Asia).

  • Talk to both Israel and Iran for peace.

  • Improve navy and maritime security to protect sea routes.

  • Speed up projects like Chabahar Port and INSTC.

  • Use soft power (education, culture, medical aid) to win trust.


🔟 Will the West Asia conflict affect UPSC exams?

Yes! This is a hot topic for:

  • GS Paper 2 (IR section)

  • Essay paper

  • Prelims (facts like Strait of Hormuz, Chabahar, oil stats)

  • Current Affairs

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